
Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals
(-115/-105)-110
On July 28, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves in the lower tier of the standings, with the Cardinals sitting at 54-53 and the Marlins at 50-54. While the Cardinals are having an average season, the Marlins are struggling, making this matchup crucial for both teams to find some momentum.
In their previous game, the Marlins faced a tough loss, while the Cardinals are looking to build on their recent performances. St. Louis is projected to start Andre Pallante, who has had an average year, with a 5-7 record and an ERA of 4.91. However, Pallante’s underlying metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky this season, as evidenced by his 3.80 xFIP. On the other hand, Edward Cabrera takes the mound for Miami, boasting a solid 4-4 record and an impressive ERA of 3.48, ranking him as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB.
The Cardinals’ offense ranks 15th in the league, with a particularly strong batting average that places them 10th overall. However, they struggle with power, ranking 21st in home runs, which could be a factor against Cabrera. Conversely, Miami’s offense ranks 20th overall, but they do have a respectable 8th place in batting average. Their lack of power, with only 97 home runs this season, could work in Pallante’s favor, as he is a high-groundball pitcher with a 62% groundball rate.
Betting markets currently favor the Cardinals with a moneyline of -120, reflecting a close contest ahead. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a competitive affair, and the Cardinals may have the edge if Pallante can capitalize on the Marlins’ offensive limitations.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Out of all starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Typically, hitters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante will “start” for St. Louis Cardinals in today’s game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple frames.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Masyn Winn is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+17.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)Victor Scott II has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)