Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Angels vs Yankees Analysis – 6/16/2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

New York Yankees

On June 16, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium for the first game of a three-game series. The Yankees currently sit at 42-28, showcasing a solid season, while the Angels struggle at 33-37. Recent performances illustrate the disparity between the two teams; the Yankees were shut out 2-0 in their last game on June 15, while the Angels fell heavily to the Houston Astros, losing 11-2.

Clarke Schmidt is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, bringing with him a respectable ERA of 3.60 and a solid 3.95 xERA, suggesting he may have been unlucky this season. Schmidt’s last outing was particularly impressive as he pitched 6 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 7 batters. On the other side, Jose Soriano will pitch for the Angels, holding a 3.86 ERA. Although he also performed well in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings with 12 strikeouts, he has struggled with control.

The Yankees’ offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that has hit 109 home runs this season. In stark contrast, the Angels’ offense ranks 23rd overall, despite their own power, hitting 100 home runs but lacking consistency. The Yankees will look to capitalize on Soriano’s issues with walks, as they possess the highest walk rate in MLB, potentially giving them an edge in this matchup.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the Yankees enter as heavy favorites with a current moneyline of -205. The projections indicate that the Yankees are likely to score around 4.96 runs, while the Angels are projected for just 3.54 runs. Given the current form of both teams and their statistical rankings, the Yankees seem poised to come out strong in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jose Soriano has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.6% less often this year (7.2%) than he did last season (13.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Moore, Jo Adell, Logan O’Hoppe, Jorge Soler, Mike Trout).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Clarke Schmidt wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last outing and notched 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, hitters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jose Soriano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 5th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+12.12 Units / 20% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.30 Units / 43% ROI)