Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
(-110/-110)-180
As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on July 22, 2024, at Globe Life Field, both teams come into this American League matchup with contrasting seasons. The Rangers, currently at 47-52, are having a below-average season, while the White Sox, at a dismal 27-74, are struggling mightily.
This game marks the first in a new series for both teams. The Rangers, who played yesterday and secured a narrow 3-2 win against the Orioles, will look to build on that momentum. Meanwhile, the White Sox are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Royals, where they were significant underdogs with an implied win probability of just 32%.
On the mound, the Rangers will start Michael Lorenzen, a right-hander who holds a 5-5 record with a respectable 3.52 ERA over 16 starts. However, Lorenzen’s 4.99 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and may be due for regression. Lorenzen is a high-flyball pitcher (37% FB rate) who benefits from facing a White Sox offense that ranks 28th in home runs this season, which could play to his advantage.
Opposing Lorenzen will be Erick Fedde for the White Sox. Fedde has been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for Chicago, boasting a 7-3 record with an excellent 2.99 ERA. However, his 3.85 xFIP also hints at some luck. Despite his success, the projections suggest a challenging outing, with Fedde allowing 2.8 earned runs and 5.3 hits on average.
Offensively, the Rangers are ranked 23rd overall but have average rankings in both batting average and home runs (17th in both categories). Their best hitter, Marcus Semien, has been a consistent performer with 13 home runs and 51 RBIs across 97 games. The White Sox, on the other hand, have the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th in both overall performance and batting average.
The betting lines reflect these dynamics, with the Rangers as big favorites with a -175 moneyline, translating to a 62% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, corroborates this by projecting a 62% win probability for the Rangers. They are expected to score 4.84 runs on average, compared to the White Sox’s 4.02 runs.
Given these factors, the Rangers appear to have the upper hand, especially with the White Sox’s anemic offense and shaky bullpen. Expect the Rangers to capitalize on these advantages as they aim to start this series on a high note.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Erick Fedde – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Compared to league average, Erick Fedde has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.6 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Andrew Benintendi may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Chicago White Sox – 2H MoneylineThe Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Michael Lorenzen has used his sinker 8.8% more often this year (20.6%) than he did last year (11.8%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.317) suggests that Josh Smith has had positive variance on his side this year with his .366 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 84 games (+12.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Leody Taveras has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+12.75 Units / 67% ROI)