Check the Betting Guide and Odds for White Sox vs Padres – Sunday September 22nd, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres gear up to host the Chicago White Sox at Petco Park on September 22, 2024, the stakes are high for the home team. With a solid 89-66 record, the Padres are having a strong season and are in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox, with a dismal 36-119 record, are struggling at the bottom of the standings and are out of playoff contention.

The Padres are favored heavily in this matchup, with a moneyline of -310 and an implied win probability of 73%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, projecting the Padres as massive favorites with a 73% win probability. Their offense, ranked 5th-best overall and 1st in team batting average, is expected to capitalize on facing one of the league’s worst pitching staffs.

Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego, bringing his 6-3 record and impressive 3.21 ERA into the game. Despite his ERA indicating a great season, his xFIP of 3.97 suggests some luck has been involved. Still, Darvish’s ability to limit walks and strike out batters should serve him well against a White Sox offense that ranks last in both batting average and home runs.

On the flip side, Sean Burke will start for Chicago. With just one start this season, Burke’s 2.25 ERA appears promising, but his 4.19 xFIP hints at potential regression. The Padres’ potent lineup, projected to score 5.34 runs, will likely test Burke’s mettle.

San Diego’s bullpen, ranked 2nd in the league, further solidifies their advantage, especially against a White Sox bullpen that sits at 28th. Given these dynamics, the Padres are well-positioned to take this interleague matchup and continue their playoff push.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Sean Burke has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 16.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance this year. His .262 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .320.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+270)
  The Chicago White Sox projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-worst of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yu Darvish must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 63.1% of the time, grading out in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-320)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 74 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 away games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+8.50 Units / 14% ROI)