Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Royals vs Athletics – Friday September 26th, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Athletics

As the Kansas City Royals visit Sutter Health Park to take on the Oakland Athletics on September 26, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League. The Athletics, with a record of 75-84, are having a below-average season, while the Royals stand at 80-79, marking an average year for them. The Athletics’ recent game saw them drop a tough one to the Royals by a score of 11-5, showing the clear gulf in form between the teams.

On the mound, Oakland will send out Luis Morales, who has had a mixed season with a 4-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.07. However, advanced projections indicate he may have been a bit lucky so far, as his xFIP is significantly higher at 4.49. Morales has struggled with allowing runs and hits, projecting to give up 2.9 earned runs and 5.0 hits today. Facing him is Kansas City’s Noah Cameron, boasting a solid ERA of 2.90 and a better record of 9-7. Cameron’s projections also suggest he could be in for a challenging outing, allowing 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 7th in MLB, showing their prowess at the plate, particularly with their power-hitting lineup that has accumulated 218 home runs this season, good for 6th most in the league. Conversely, the Royals’ offense is ranked 20th, and they have struggled significantly this season, especially in terms of power, with only 155 home runs, the 6th least in MLB.

With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this matchup is crucial for both sides, especially as the Athletics look to capitalize on their offensive firepower against a Royals team that has shown vulnerability. The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair. Betting markets reflect a close contest, with both teams’ moneylines at -110.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Noah Cameron was on point in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under Hits
  Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .163 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Morales – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Morales to throw 83 pitches today (11th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Nick Kurtz is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Tyler Soderstrom has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 89 games (+16.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under Team Total
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 96 of their last 159 games (+27.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)