Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Reds vs Marlins – Monday April 21st, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 21, 2025, they enter the game with a record of 9-12, while the Reds sit slightly better at 11-11. This matchup is significant not only as the first game in their series but also as both teams look to establish momentum after contrasting performances in their previous outings. The Marlins pulled off a 7-5 victory against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 20, while the Reds dominated the St. Louis Cardinals with a staggering 24-2 win on April 15.

The Marlins are projected to start Max Meyer, who has shown flashes of promise this season with a solid ERA of 2.63 over four starts. However, advanced projections suggest he has benefitted from some luck, as indicated by his 3.90 xERA, hinting that he may regress as the season progresses. Meyer, a right-hander, will face off against the Reds’ Nick Lodolo, a lefty who has also enjoyed a strong start, posting an impressive 2.31 ERA. Like Meyer, Lodolo’s 4.14 xFIP indicates he may also face challenges if luck runs out.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 15th in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average, sitting 3rd overall. However, they struggle with power, ranking 24th in home runs. In contrast, the Reds boast a much stronger offense, ranked 6th in the league, showcasing their ability to score runs and hit home runs effectively.

With the current Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets reflect a close contest, as the Marlins’ moneyline stands at -105 with an implied total of 3.95 runs, while the Reds are at -115 with an implied total of 4.05 runs. Given the recent performances and projections, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors to consider the Marlins, who may outperform their current outlook.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.7 mph this year (92.4 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Jake Fraley is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Max Meyer projects to strikeout 5.4 bats in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball bats like Dane Myers generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)
  The 2nd-weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 49% ROI)