Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
(-105/-115)+110
On April 21, 2025, the Miami Marlins welcome the Cincinnati Reds to LoanDepot Park for the first game of a pivotal series. With both teams struggling to find their footing early in the season, every matchup is crucial. The Marlins hold a record of 9-12, while the Reds sit slightly better at 11-11. Miami’s last outing was a tough loss, and they need to turn things around quickly. Meanwhile, the Reds have experienced mixed success but showed the potential to exploit weak spots in their opponents.
Miami’s Max Meyer takes the mound, looking to improve on his 1-2 record and impressive 2.63 ERA. However, his peripherals are concerning; both his xERA and FIP indicate he may have been a bit fortunate in his outings thus far. Meyer’s strikeout and walk projections point to a need for better control, as he is projected to allow 1.7 walks per game. The Marlins offense has been average, ranking 13th in MLB, but they struggle with power, sitting 25th in home runs.
On the other side, Nick Lodolo of the Reds will look to capitalize on the Marlins’ offensive limitations. Lodolo boasts an excellent 2.31 ERA and has a solid command, projected to allow just 2.5 earned runs today. The Reds’ lineup, while ranking 22nd in overall offensive production, has a solid recent performance from their best hitter, who has gathered 7 RBIs over the past week.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.7 mph this year (92.4 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Jake Fraley is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Max Meyer projects to strikeout 5.1 bats in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Extreme groundball bats like Dane Myers generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Jesus Sanchez).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.15 Units / 34% ROI)