Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
(-120/+100)-130
On March 28, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Baltimore Orioles in a pivotal matchup at Rogers Centre. The two teams are coming off contrasting starts to the season, with the Blue Jays sitting at 0-1 and looking to bounce back after a rough opening day. In stark contrast, the Orioles are off to a strong start at 1-0. This game marks the second in the series between these two American League East rivals.
The Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman to the mound, who is projected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. While Gausman has shown the ability to strike out a respectable 5.2 batters, his projections indicate he may struggle with hits and walks, allowing around 4.4 hits and 1.5 walks per game. Power Rankings reflect Gausman as the 150th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is below average, which is concerning for the Blue Jays.
Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Orioles. Although Morton’s Power Rankings suggest he is among the worst pitchers in MLB, he projects to allow just 2.5 earned runs on average, which is slightly below average. He also has a modest strikeout projection of 3.7 batters per game, but like Gausman, he struggles with walks, projected to allow 2.0.
Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 16th overall, which is average, but they are 26th in home runs and 27th in stolen bases—statistics that indicate a lack of firepower. Conversely, the Orioles boast a potent offense, ranking 5th in MLB, including a 2nd place ranking in home runs, showcasing their ability to capitalize on pitching mistakes.
With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets favor a close contest, as reflected in the Blue Jays’ moneyline of -130 and the Orioles’ +110. Given their offensive strengths and the fact that the Blue Jays are struggling, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors to consider the Orioles as a potential upset.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Charlie Morton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Charlie Morton in the 84th percentile among all starters in the majors.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#1-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jorge Mateo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-130)The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense grades out as the best out of every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- The Toronto Blue Jays (17.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games at home (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 82 of their last 153 games (+16.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Jordan Westburg has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.50 Units / 38% ROI)