Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Dodgers vs Cubs – Tuesday April 22nd, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field on April 22, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Cubs sitting at 14-10 and the Dodgers at 16-7. The matchup is significant as it marks the first game of the series between these two National League rivals. In their last contests, the Cubs fell short against the Dodgers, losing 3-2. Meanwhile, the Dodgers managed a narrow 1-0 victory, extending their winning streak.

The Cubs will send Shota Imanaga to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has had an impressive season so far, posting a 2-1 record and a stellar 2.22 ERA. However, advanced projections indicate he may be due for some regression, as his 4.85 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. Imanaga’s tendency to allow fly balls (48% FB rate) could be a concern against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in the league in home runs, having hit 36 long balls this season.

On the other side, Dustin May, a right-handed pitcher with a 1.06 ERA, takes the hill for the Dodgers. Although his ERA is excellent, his xFIP of 3.29 indicates potential for less favorable outcomes. May’s groundball-heavy approach (62% GB rate) could serve him well against a Cubs offense that, while powerful, ranks 3rd in home runs with 34 this season.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 2nd best lineup in MLB, while the Dodgers sit at 10th. The projections suggest the Cubs could score around 4.15 runs today, while the Dodgers have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs. The Cubs’ best hitter is currently in fine form, with a recent batting average of .381 over the last week, indicating he could be a key player in this matchup. With both teams vying for an important early-season victory, expect a competitive game at Wrigley.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Dustin May’s high usage rate of his fastball (59.3% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Rojas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Freddie Freeman has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (90.4 mph) below where it was last season (91.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Carson Kelly has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 6.6% rate last year to 23.7% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-165)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 53% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)