Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)+100
On April 22, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field in what marks the first game of a promising series between two teams enjoying strong seasons. Currently, the Cubs stand at 14-10, sitting near the top of the National League Central, while the Dodgers are faring even better at 16-7, leading the National League West. Both teams are coming off close games, with the Cubs narrowly losing 3-2 to the Atlanta Braves on April 20, while the Dodgers secured a 1-0 win over the San Diego Padres.
The matchup features two intriguing pitchers: Shota Imanaga and Dustin May. Imanaga, who boasts an impressive 2.22 ERA this season, will take the mound for the Cubs. Despite his average xFIP of 4.85 suggesting he has been fortunate, his last outing on April 15 was stellar, going five innings with zero earned runs and striking out seven. Conversely, May’s 1.06 ERA is excellent, although his 3.29 xFIP warns of potential regression.
The Cubs’ offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, has been a driving force this season, showcasing depth with their 34 home runs and a strong .270 batting average. The projections anticipate that the Cubs could score around 4.39 runs today, which is a solid output against a capable Dodgers bullpen that ranks 4th in MLB. On the other hand, the Dodgers’ offense is powered by their 36 home runs, yet they struggle with a low .228 batting average, which ranks 20th in MLB.
As the game approaches, the Cubs will rely on their high-flying offense against May, who relies on a ground-ball approach. Given the Cubs’ track record at home and their offensive prowess, they might just outlast the Dodgers in this tightly contested matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Dustin May’s high usage rate of his fastball (59.3% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Typically, bats like Max Muncy who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (90.4 mph) below where it was last season (91.6 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Seiya Suzuki has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last year to 19.1% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected batting order today (.327 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .340 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)