Atlanta Braves
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)+145
The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Atlanta Braves on April 13, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Rays are currently struggling with a 6-8 record, while the Braves are even worse off at 4-10. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, especially after the Rays lost a competitive game to the Braves yesterday by a score of 5-4.
Tampa Bay will send Joe Boyle to the mound, who has faced challenges this season, ranking 174th out of around 350 pitchers according to advanced metrics. Boyle’s average projections show he could pitch 4.7 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.1 hits, and 2.5 walks, which indicates potential trouble. His last outing saw him giving up 5 earned runs, highlighting his inconsistency.
On the other hand, Atlanta will counter with Chris Sale, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 14th in the league. Despite his high rank, Sale has struggled this season with a 6.75 ERA and a concerning 0-1 record after allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. However, his 3.15 xFIP suggests that he might be due for positive regression, making him a pitcher to watch.
Offensively, the Rays boast the 10th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by a solid team batting average of .295, while the Braves sit in the middle of the pack at 17th. Tampa Bay’s top hitter has been especially productive lately, with a .378 batting average and 1.157 OPS over the season.
With the current odds giving the Rays an underdog status at +150, there’s a glimmer of hope for a turnaround, especially if their potent offense can capitalize on Sale’s recent difficulties. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, providing a competitive framework for a thrilling matchup.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Chris Sale’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (60.7% vs. 55.1% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Marcell Ozuna has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last season’s 92.1-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-170)The Atlanta Braves projected lineup ranks as the 5th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Joe Boyle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Out of all starters, Joe Boyle’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Curtis Mead has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 3.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount lower than his 14.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Tampa Bay’s 87.9-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the game: #28 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 86 away games (+9.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 89% ROI)