Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Angels vs Padres – Monday May 12th, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres, who currently hold a 25-14 record, welcome the struggling Los Angeles Angels (16-23) to Petco Park for the first game of their interleague series on May 12, 2025. The Padres are riding a strong season, notably ranking 1st in MLB for team batting average, while the Angels find themselves battling significant offensive issues, sitting at 29th in that same category.

In their last outings, both teams faced setbacks, with the Padres losing 9-3 to the Detroit Tigers and the Angels falling 7-3 to the Kansas City Royals. Despite these losses, the Padres’ pitcher Michael King stands out. With a 4-1 record, an exceptional 2.22 ERA, and an impressive strikeout rate of 27%, King has established himself as a top-tier pitcher, ranking 25th overall in MLB Power Rankings. His projections indicate he will average 6.0 innings pitched with only 1.8 earned runs allowed today, which bodes well for the Padres.

On the other side, Angels’ starter Yusei Kikuchi has struggled with a 0-4 record and a 3.83 ERA this season. He projects to average 5.9 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed, which, while respectable, does not match King’s prowess. Moreover, Kikuchi’s 4.47 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate thus far.

Given the Padres’ offensive strengths and the Angels’ challenges, the projections lean heavily in favor of the Padres. With the Padres’ bullpen ranked 3rd in the league, they have a significant advantage heading into this matchup. Bettors might find value in the Padres as they look to bounce back from their recent loss and capitalize on the Angels’ struggles.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (61.2% compared to 53.1% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  This season, Zach Neto has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.5 mph compared to last year’s 94.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Los Angeles Angels with a 25.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Michael King’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Brandon Lockridge are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.77 Units / 12% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.69 Units / 24% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)