Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
(-115/-105)-165
On August 17, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in the third game of their series. The Royals stand at 62-61, sitting mid-table, while the White Sox struggle at 44-79, marking a disappointing season. Yesterday, the Royals edged out the White Sox in a tightly contested match, giving Kansas City a slight momentum boost.
The pitching matchup features Ryan Bergert for the Royals and Davis Martin for the White Sox. Bergert has had a rocky year yet boasts an impressive 2.87 ERA across 9 starts. However, his 4.60 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from good fortune, indicating potential regression. Meanwhile, Martin, with a 4.17 ERA and 18 starts under his belt, has also been inconsistent and ranks among the less effective pitchers in the league.
Interestingly, the projections favor the offense of the Royals, which has struggled overall, ranking 24th in MLB. Their power numbers are particularly concerning, as they stand 28th in home runs, which could play into Martin’s hands, as he is a groundball pitcher with a 48% groundball rate. The Royals have a slight edge in stolen bases, ranking 10th in that category, potentially adding a layer of strategy against a White Sox defense that ranks 19th in their bullpen.
The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting expectations for scoring, and the Royals come in as betting favorites with a moneyline of -165. This sets up an enticing match for the Royals, who need to take advantage of their home field and get back on track after last night’s victory against the White Sox.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Tallying 16.9 outs per GS this year on average, Davis Martin places in the 75th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Kyle Teel is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Today, Miguel Vargas is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (94th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Ryan Bergert faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)Salvador Perez has paced 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- It may be wise to expect better results for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 61 games at home (+22.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 101 games (+12.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Adam Frazier – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 45% ROI)