Check Out Tigers vs Blue Jays Picks and Betting Tips – Sunday May 18th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Detroit Tigers on May 18, 2025, in a pivotal matchup as both teams vie for position in the American League. The Blue Jays currently sit at 22-23, reflecting an average season thus far, while the Tigers have been impressive with a record of 30-16, marking them as one of the top contenders in the league.

In their previous encounter, the Tigers emerged victorious, showcasing their strength and solidifying their standing. Toronto will look to bounce back, with Jose Berrios taking the mound. Despite being ranked as the 174th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Berrios has shown flashes of competence, posting a 4.33 ERA this season. However, projections suggest he may be due for a downturn, as his peripherals indicate he has been somewhat lucky.

On the opposite side, the Tigers will counter with Jackson Jobe, who has struggled this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Jobe’s 4.32 ERA is deceptive, as his 5.11 xFIP suggests he could face challenges against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 15th overall but has been relatively consistent in recent games.

The Blue Jays’ offense has been bolstered by their best hitter, who has recorded an impressive 1.176 OPS over the past week. However, they rank just 21st in team home runs, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities against the Tigers’ strong bullpen, currently ranked 2nd in MLB.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive. The Blue Jays’ moneyline is currently set at -120, reflecting their status as slight favorites, while the Tigers sit at +100. Given the projections, the Blue Jays may have the edge, especially if Berrios can exceed expectations against a Tigers lineup that has been potent but may struggle to exploit Jobe’s weaknesses.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Jackson Jobe has been very fortunate when it comes to his ERA this year; his 4.32 rate is a fair amount lower than his 5.81 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Kerry Carpenter has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Detroit Tigers projected lineup today (.319 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .330 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jose Berrios’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this year (91.9 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball batters like Daulton Varsho generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jackson Jobe.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games (+12.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.70 Units / 68% ROI)