Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-125
On April 28, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Minnesota Twins in the first game of their series at Progressive Field. The Guardians currently sit at 15-12, enjoying a solid start to the season, while the Twins are struggling at 12-16. This matchup is particularly interesting as the Guardians boast the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, a significant advantage in close games.
In their last outing, the Guardians took the field with confidence, bolstered by their top hitter’s impressive .417 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Twins have also seen some bright spots, with their best hitter recording three home runs recently, showcasing the offensive potential that, despite their overall ranking of 22nd in MLB, can never be overlooked.
Projected starters Gavin Williams for the Guardians and Bailey Ober for the Twins present a compelling contrast. Williams, ranked 94th among MLB starting pitchers, has an ERA of 4.15 and is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs. However, his 5.29 xERA indicates he may have been a bit fortunate this year. On the other hand, Ober, with a better ranking of 65th, has a higher ERA of 5.04 but projects to improve, given his lower 4.18 xFIP. This suggests a potential turnaround for Ober, who has been somewhat unlucky thus far.
With the Guardians’ average offensive rank and the Twins’ below-average performance, the matchup favors Cleveland. The Guardians’ moneyline sits at -125, reflecting a close contest, while projections suggest they could edge out the Twins, who are currently at +105. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Byron Buxton has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 96-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Minnesota’s 88.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #24 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Gavin Williams has relied on his slider 13.4% more often this season (24.7%) than he did last season (11.3%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Typically, batters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bailey Ober.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-125)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+4.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+9.30 Units / 93% ROI)