Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Nationals vs Brewers – Sunday, July 13, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Washington Nationals on July 13, 2025, amid a significant series matchup. With the Brewers currently holding a record of 55-40 and the Nationals at 38-57, the stakes are apparent. The Brewers are enjoying a strong season and are a considerable betting favorite, boasting a moneyline of -230 and an implied team total of 5.10 runs for today’s game. In contrast, the Nationals are facing difficulties and have a low implied team total of 3.40 runs.

In their previous outing, the Brewers came out on top with a decisive victory over the Nationals. The focus today will be on the starting pitchers: Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee and Jake Irvin for Washington. Peralta, ranked as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has proven to be effective this year with a Win/Loss record of 10-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.74. However, projections indicate he could be due for some regression, as evidenced by his xFIP showing he may have been somewhat lucky this season.

On the other hand, Irvin has struggled, with a Win/Loss record of 7-4 and an ERA of 4.78, placing him among the worst pitchers in the league. His peripherals suggest he, too, may have been fortunate, and he is likely to face challenges against a Brewers offense that recently ranked 16th in MLB.

Although the Brewers offense ranks only 22nd in home runs, their ability to excel in stolen bases—ranking 2nd overall—could provide further opportunities to put runs on the board. Given the sharp contrast in starting pitcher performance and the overall season records, Milwaukee appears well-positioned to secure another victory today.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jake Irvin’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (47.3% compared to 41.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  The switch-hitting Josh Bell will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-250)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+390/-600)
  Grading out in the 91st percentile for base-stealing, Brice Turang has paced 28.4 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-250)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+15.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)
  James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.60 Units / 37% ROI)