Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Giants vs Rockies – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Colorado Rockies

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on June 11, 2025, at Coors Field, they do so with momentum after winning a nail-biter against the Rockies just a day earlier, triumphing 6-5. The Giants are currently riding high with a solid 39-28 record, positioning themselves favorably within the National League West. Conversely, the Rockies are struggling significantly this season, sitting at a dismal 12-54 and showcasing the worst offense in MLB.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough year with a 1-8 record and an ERA of 5.19. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest he may perform better than his numbers indicate, as his xFIP of 3.64 projects a more favorable outcome. However, Freeland faces a daunting task against the Giants’ lineup, which, while not the most powerful, still poses a threat with an average of 6.09 runs projected for this matchup.

Robbie Ray, the Giants’ starter, comes into this game with an impressive 8-1 record and a stellar ERA of 2.44. His ability to generate strikeouts—28.4% this season—could exploit the Rockies’ high strikeout rate. Additionally, Ray’s recent form, having pitched well in his last start with 7 innings, 2 earned runs, and 9 strikeouts, suggests he can continue to dominate.

Given the stark contrast in performance and the Rockies’ poor offensive ranking, the Giants are favored to win this matchup. With a moneyline of -200, San Francisco presents a strong case for bettors looking for a reliable pick in this underwhelming series. The Rockies, currently a +170 underdog, will need to find a spark if they hope to turn their season around.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the San Francisco Giants will tally 6.05 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has used his secondary offerings 5.1% more often this season (60.3%) than he did last season (55.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jordan Beck has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 84-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .320 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+11.07 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 41% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)