Check Out the Tigers vs Nationals Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday July 02, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals host the Detroit Tigers on July 2, 2025, both teams are coming off a competitive first game of the double-header, with the Tigers taking a narrow victory. The Nationals, with a disappointing record of 35-49 this season, are looking to turn their fortunes around against a Tigers squad that boasts an impressive 53-32 record.

In this matchup, the Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who has shown flashes of brilliance this year despite his 3-8 record and 3.09 ERA. With a Power Ranking of 40th among starting pitchers, Gore has the potential to deliver a strong performance, particularly as he faces a low-strikeout Tigers offense. The projections suggest he will average 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters, which bodes well for Washington.

On the hill for the Tigers is Jack Flaherty, who has struggled with a 4.80 ERA and a 5-9 record. Ranked 86th among MLB starters, Flaherty’s high walk rate (9.9 BB%) could play into the Nationals’ hands, given their low walk tendency. However, he remains a high-strikeout pitcher with a K% of 28.3, which may pose challenges for an offense that ranks 20th in MLB.

While the Nationals’ offense has been lackluster overall, they do rank 7th in stolen bases, adding an element of speed to their game. Conversely, the Tigers’ offense is performing exceptionally well, ranking 5th in MLB. Despite the Nationals’ struggles, betting markets indicate a close contest with both teams at -110 moneylines. With the projected totals set at 8.0 runs, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup as the Nationals seek to capitalize on Flaherty’s control issues while facing one of the league’s better offenses.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Bats such as Javier Baez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like MacKenzie Gore who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers hitters as a group rank 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 10.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  MacKenzie Gore has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Riley Adams has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 12.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.87 Units / 13% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 77 games (+12.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+8.00 Units / 111% ROI)