Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Pirates vs Rockies Matchup 8/1/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Pittsburgh Pirates for the first game of their series on August 1, 2025, at Coors Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 28-80 and the Pirates at 47-62. Each squad is not contending for a playoff spot, and the matchup features two pitchers who have had their share of difficulties this year.

Antonio Senzatela, projected to start for the Rockies, comes in with a Win/Loss record of 4-14 and an alarming ERA of 6.68. His advanced stats indicate some unfortunate luck, as his xFIP stands at 5.03, suggesting he could improve, but expectations remain low given his track record and projected performance today, where he’s anticipated to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 3.6 earned runs. Facing him is Andrew Heaney, who has also struggled, holding a 5-9 record and a 4.79 ERA. Heaney’s low strikeout rate (17.2 K%) might not bode well against the Rockies’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd worst in the league.

The Rockies’ offense ranks as the 28th best in MLB, and their performance has been dismal overall. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense ranks dead last, compounded by their 30th ranking in team home runs. Notably, the Pirates have displayed some speed on the bases, sitting at 10th in stolen bases, but that hasn’t translated to run production, as their batters struggle to get on base.

Despite these challenges, the Rockies are listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, suggesting their projected team total is a respectable 5.28 runs. In contrast, the Pirates are favored at -150, carrying a higher implied total of 6.22 runs. Overall, it appears this game could be a battle of pitchers looking to find their footing amid disappointing seasons, and Bettors should be cautious given the high Game Total of 11.5 runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Heaney to throw 82 pitches in today’s game (5th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.9) provides evidence that Joey Bart has been unlucky this year with his 2.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Antonio Senzatela has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 58% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Thairo Estrada – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado’s 89-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the game: #23 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+11.57 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 109 games (+23.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+120/-155)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)