Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)-120
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 6, they find themselves battling for pride rather than playoff positioning, with records of 66-74 and 62-78 respectively. Both teams are struggling this season, but the Pirates recently secured an impressive 9-4 victory over the Nationals just a day prior, giving them a slight edge in confidence heading into this matchup.
Luis Ortiz is projected to take the mound for the Pirates, coming off a strong performance in his last start where he pitched six innings without allowing an earned run. Despite being ranked as the 201st best starting pitcher in MLB, his solid ERA of 3.19 suggests he has had some luck on his side, especially with a higher xFIP of 4.71. Ortiz’s low strikeout rate (19.1 K%) may be a concern against a Nationals offense that has the 6th fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially making it difficult for him to capitalize on his strengths.
On the other side, DJ Herz will start for the Nationals. Although he has an average ERA of 4.09, he has been unlucky this season, as indicated by his lower SIERA of 3.55. Herz faces a Pirates offense that ranks 28th overall, making this a favorable matchup for him. However, the Pirates are projected to score an average of 5.07 runs, indicating that their offense could surprise.
With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest a close contest. The Pirates have a high implied team total of 4.30 runs, while the Nationals are projected for 4.20 runs. As both teams look to build on their recent performances, this matchup promises to be a competitive affair at PNC Park.
Washington Nationals Insights
- It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- The 8.4% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates grades them out as the #10 team in MLB this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+170)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 106 games (+15.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 80% ROI)