Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Braves vs Mets Matchup 8/14/2025

Atlanta Braves

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face off against the Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2025, both teams have had contrasting seasons thus far. The Mets currently hold a record of 64-56, showcasing an above-average performance, while the Braves find themselves struggling with a 52-68 record. In a recent matchup, the Braves took the advantage in an 11-6 victory, further emphasizing their need for consistency as they aim to bounce back.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, and his season has been impressive, reflected in his 2.30 ERA and solid 7-4 win/loss record. However, the projections indicate he might have been a bit lucky so far, with a 4.39 xFIP suggesting that his numbers could regress. Senga’s control poses a concern, as he features a high walk rate (12.0 BB%) against a Braves lineup known for its patience and ability to draw walks, ranking 3rd in MLB.

On the other hand, the Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, who has struggled this season with a 6.12 ERA and a 4-9 record. Although he projects to improve slightly according to the metrics, he remains one of the weakest pitchers in the league this year. With the Mets’ offense ranking 12th in MLB, they are poised to capitalize on Elder’s vulnerabilities, especially given that they rank 9th in home runs.

With a game total of 9.0 runs, betting markets favor the Mets significantly, offering an implied team total of 5.10 runs. As the Mets look to build on their recent performance and take advantage of the Braves’ struggles, they enter this matchup as strong favorites.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a notable edge over groundball batters, Bryce Elder and his 48.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot today facing 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Michael Harris II has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Kodai Senga’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (63.1% this year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Juan Soto has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 96.9-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-180)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+285/-410)
  Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+10.30 Units / 172% ROI)