Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-165
As the New York Mets prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 13, 2025, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions within their respective divisions. The Mets, sitting atop their division with a solid 45-24 record, are having a standout season, showcasing a potent offense that ranks 5th in MLB. In contrast, the Rays, at 36-32, are fighting for relevance but have shown that they can be competitive, particularly with their exceptional stolen base game, ranking 1st in the league.
In their most recent game, the Rays fell to the Mets in a tightly contested matchup, adding pressure as they look to bounce back. The spotlight for this game will be on the starting pitchers, Clay Holmes for the Mets and Taj Bradley for the Rays. Holmes, currently ranked as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, boasts an impressive 2.95 ERA this season. He has been particularly effective, with projections suggesting he will allow only 2.1 earned runs today. However, his elevated xFIP of 3.60 indicates he may be running on some luck.
On the other hand, Taj Bradley has struggled somewhat, sitting at 77th in the Power Rankings with a 4.58 ERA. While his projections show an average performance with 5.4 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs, he has the potential to perform better due to his favorable 4.03 xFIP. Both pitchers are right-handed, which adds an interesting dynamic to the matchup.
The Mets’ offense is not only powerful, boasting 89 home runs this season, but they are also leveraging the exceptional performance of their best hitter, who has put up outstanding numbers recently. Conversely, the Rays will need to find a way to capitalize on their chances against a Mets bullpen that ranks a disappointing 26th in MLB, which may provide some opportunities for the Rays to score. With the Mets favored at -165 on the moneyline, this game promises to be a critical contest as both teams aim for a decisive win.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Out of all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 87th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Clay Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Because flyball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over flyball hitters, Clay Holmes and his 56.2% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in this game matching up with 3 opposing FB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Typically, hitters like Starling Marte who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Taj Bradley.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-165)The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-165)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 64 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.40 Units / 185% ROI)