Check Out the Rangers vs Nationals Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 6/7/2025

Texas Rangers

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Washington Nationals

On June 7, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Texas Rangers at Nationals Park for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 30-33 and the Rangers at 29-35. The Rangers are currently ranked 29th in MLB in offense, which is a significant concern as they face a Nationals pitching staff that, while not elite, has shown some promise.

Mitchell Parker is projected to take the mound for the Nationals. He has had a rocky season, with a 4-5 record and an ERA of 4.71, ranking him as the 187th best starting pitcher in MLB. Parker’s high walk rate (10.0 BB%) could be a double-edged sword against a Rangers lineup that is among the least patient in the league, potentially giving him an advantage if he can avoid giving up big hits. However, projections suggest he may allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.7 hits today, indicating a challenging matchup.

On the other side, Jacob deGrom is slated to pitch for the Rangers. With a 5-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.34, deGrom ranks 12th among MLB starters, showcasing his elite status. However, his xFIP of 3.46 suggests he might be due for some regression. DeGrom has been effective at limiting walks (6.3 BB%), which could work against the Nationals, who rank 6th in least walks drawn.

The Nationals’ offense has been average overall, ranked 16th in MLB, but they struggle with power, sitting 21st in home runs. In contrast, the Rangers’ offense is in dire straits, ranking 29th in batting average. Despite their struggles, the Nationals are slight underdogs with a moneyline of +140, while the Rangers are favored at -165. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both teams’ performances.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Given that flyball batters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Jacob deGrom and his 37.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in this matchup going up against 6 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Typically, hitters like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Mitchell Parker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Because of his reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will hold the advantage matching up with 9 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Alex Call is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.19 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games (+16.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.80 Units / 69% ROI)