Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Red Sox vs Astros – 8/12/25

Boston Red Sox

@

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Boston Red Sox on August 12, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Astros, currently sitting at 67-52, are having a solid season and maintain a competitive position in the playoff race. On the other hand, the Red Sox, with a 65-55 record, are having an above-average season but are not in contention for their division.

In their previous matchup, the Astros secured a victory, which could indicate momentum as they aim to capitalize on their home field advantage at Minute Maid Park. Spencer Arrighetti is projected to take the mound for Houston, and while he has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and a dismal ERA of 7.43, advanced projections suggest he could perform better due to some bad luck. He has also been projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs. His xFIP of 4.54 indicates potential for improvement, even if his current form is concerning.

Conversely, Boston will counter with Dustin May, who has been an average pitcher this year, sporting a 6-8 record and a 4.93 ERA. He projects to allow 2.3 earned runs and 5.0 hits over an average of 5.6 innings. The Red Sox’s offense ranks 6th overall in the league, bolstered by a strong batting average of .265, which could exploit Arrighetti’s vulnerabilities.

With the Astros’ offense ranking 10th in MLB and their current moneyline at -115, the projections favor them to score around 4.30 runs, while the Red Sox are expected to tally about 4.20 runs based on their moneyline of -105. Given the overall team dynamics and the pitching matchups, the Astros might have the upper hand in this contest, making them a team to watch closely as they look to extend their winning streak.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Due to his huge platoon split, Dustin May should be in good shape being matched up with 7 hitters in the projected offense who share his handedness in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Spencer Arrighetti has compiled a whopping 7.42 ERA over his last 3 outings.
  Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Because of Dustin May’s huge platoon split, Jose Altuve will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Placing 8th-highest in MLB this year, Houston Astros batters as a group have posted a 15° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable stat to study power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.0 (+130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Roman Anthony has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)