Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Rays vs Royals – 6/25/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals host the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium on June 25, 2025, this matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Royals, at 38-41, are struggling and currently rank 27th in offensive performance across MLB. In contrast, the Rays sit at 44-35, showcasing a strong season and a solid 11th-best offense. The previous game in this series saw the Rays defeat the Royals 5-1, marking a tough start to the series for Kansas City.

Projected starters for this game are Michael Wacha for the Royals and Drew Rasmussen for the Rays. Wacha, ranked 76th among starting pitchers, has had an up-and-down year, holding a 3.24 ERA but with a concerning 4.41 xFIP that suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. His last outing on June 19 was solid, allowing just one earned run over six innings, but today he faces a tough Rays lineup that ranks 5th in batting average.

On the other hand, Rasmussen has been excellent for Tampa Bay, with a stellar 2.61 ERA and a ranking of 22nd among pitchers. However, his 3.50 xFIP indicates he too may be due for some regression. With both pitchers projected to pitch about five innings, the game could hinge on which bullpen can hold the line. The Royals’ bullpen is rated 6th in MLB, while the Rays’ ranks 5th, suggesting both teams have reliable arms to back their starters.

Given the recent performances and overall season trends, the Rays will likely look to continue their momentum against a Royals team that has been unable to find consistent offensive output. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, expect an engaging matchup between these two clubs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2484 rpm is in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 84.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 77.4-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 75 games (+28.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+12.85 Units / 42% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI)