Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Rays vs Royals – 6/25/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Kansas City Royals

On June 25, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are currently struggling with a record of 38-41, while the Rays, at 44-35, are having a solid season. The Royals lost their last game against the Rays by a score of 5-1, a result they will aim to reverse in this matchup.

Starting for the Royals is Michael Wacha, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4-6 record and a commendable ERA of 3.24. However, his 4.41 xFIP indicates he might be overperforming, suggesting potential challenges ahead. Wacha’s recent outing was strong, allowing just one earned run over six innings, indicating he could be trending in the right direction despite his overall numbers.

On the other hand, Drew Rasmussen is slated to start for the Rays. With a 6-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.61, Rasmussen ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Yet, his projections show he might be due for some regression, particularly against a Royals offense that ranks 27th in overall performance.

While Kansas City’s offense has struggled, they have shown some potential. They rank 17th in batting average and have posted decent numbers in stolen bases. This game has a total of 9.0 runs set, indicating expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair.

Betting markets currently favor the Rays, with a moneyline set at -125, while the Royals sit at +105. Given the talent disparity, the Royals have an implied team total of 4.34 runs, which could be achievable if Wacha continues his recent form and the offense capitalizes on Rasmussen’s vulnerabilities.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2484 rpm is in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jonathan Aranda has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 75 games (+28.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+12.85 Units / 42% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+13.45 Units / 52% ROI)