Check Out the Phillies vs D-Backs Best Bets and Expert Picks – Thursday August 08, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 8, 2024, both teams are eyeing crucial wins in this highly anticipated series opener. The Diamondbacks, sitting at 63-52, have been performing above average this season, while the Phillies, at 68-46, are riding the momentum of a strong campaign. The last time these teams met, Arizona secured a narrow 5-3 victory over the Guardians, while Philadelphia triumphed over the Dodgers with a convincing 9-4 scoreline.

A key matchup to watch will be between the Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and the Phillies’ Kolby Allard, both left-handed pitchers. Montgomery, though ranking as the 206th best starter in MLB, has shown some potential for improvement with a 4.78 xFIP, suggesting he may be due for a turnaround despite his troubling 6.37 ERA. Meanwhile, Allard has had a rocky start to his season, with a 4.50 ERA and a 5.92 FIP, indicating he might be headed for a regression.

With the Diamondbacks boasting the 5th best offense in MLB, they are well-equipped to exploit Allard’s vulnerabilities. Their best hitter, Ketel Marte, has been solid all season, while Joc Pederson has stepped up recently, hitting .333 with an impressive 1.312 OPS over the last week. The projections indicate that Arizona is likely to score around 5.32 runs, and with a lofty implied team total of 5.23 runs, they are expected to mount a significant offensive challenge.

Conversely, the Phillies, despite having one of the league’s top offenses ranked 7th, face a tough task against a strong Diamondbacks bullpen, currently ranked 3rd in MLB. As both teams look to gain an edge, expect this matchup to be a closely contested battle filled with potential fireworks.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Kolby Allard – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Kolby Allard has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Trea Turner has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 83.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jordan Montgomery’s curveball usage has increased by 7.7% from last season to this one (22.2% to 29.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Randal Grichuk has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 9.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 23.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Josh Bell has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 79 games (+15.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 105 games (+15.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-630)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 away games (+9.75 Units / 65% ROI)