Check Out the Phillies vs Braves Best Bets and Expert Picks – Saturday June 28, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet again on June 28, 2025, in a crucial National League East matchup. The Braves are struggling this season with a record of 37-44, while the Phillies are thriving at 48-34. In their last outing yesterday, the Braves fell to the Phillies, continuing their below-average performance.

Projected to start for the Braves is Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a solid Power Ranking of 17th among MLB starting pitchers. Schwellenbach is having a strong season with a 6-4 record and an impressive ERA of 3.21. However, his projections suggest he may allow 2.4 earned runs today, which could be a concern given his tendency to allow an average of 5.6 hits and 1.1 walks per game, both of which are below par.

On the mound for the Phillies is Jesus Luzardo, who ranks 40th in MLB. Luzardo has a 7-3 record this year but carries a higher ERA of 4.08. His projections indicate he may struggle today, with an expected 3.0 earned runs allowed, along with poor averages of 5.5 hits and 1.8 walks.

Offensively, the Phillies boast a 10th-best ranking in MLB, while the Braves sit at 18th, suggesting a significant advantage for Philadelphia. The Braves’ offense has been particularly concerning, ranking 20th in batting average and 26th in stolen bases, which indicates their struggles to generate consistent scoring opportunities.

With the Braves favored at -155 and an implied team total of 4.66 runs, they will need to leverage their home field advantage against a potent Phillies lineup if they hope to turn their season around. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, but the Braves will need to find ways to capitalize on their chances against a solid pitcher in Luzardo.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has increased by 7.7% from last season to this one (29.2% to 36.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies batters as a unit have been one of the best in the league this year (6th-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 94th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Matt Olson has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)