Check Out the Phillies vs Braves Best Bets and Expert Picks – Saturday June 28, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 28, 2025, in a crucial National League East matchup. The Braves are struggling this season with a record of 37-44, while the Phillies are thriving at 48-34. In fact, the Braves recently suffered a humbling 13-0 defeat at the hands of the Phillies, who have been riding a wave of momentum with their dominant performance.

On the mound, the Braves are expected to start Spencer Schwellenbach, who ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Schwellenbach has shown promise with a solid 3.21 ERA and a 6-4 record across 16 starts this year. His last outing was a solid performance, allowing just two earned runs over seven innings. However, he does have concerning projections for today, including an average of 5.6 hits and 1.1 walks allowed.

On the flip side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, ranked 39th among MLB starters. Luzardo boasts a 4.08 ERA and a 7-3 record in 16 starts. His recent form is impressive too, as he threw seven shutout innings in his last game against the Braves. However, projections indicate he may be due for regression, with a projected 3.0 earned runs today.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Phillies rank as the 7th best in MLB, fueled by a potent batting average that sits at 4th overall. The Braves, conversely, are 21st in both overall offense and batting average, highlighting a clear disparity. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -170. This suggests that there is value in betting on the Braves to deliver a better performance, especially given their need to turn the tide after a recent blowout loss.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has increased by 7.7% from last season to this one (29.2% to 36.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies batters as a unit have been one of the best in the league this year (6th-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-165)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Matt Olson has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)