San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-105/-115)+105
On August 4, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Francisco Giants at PNC Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are not in contention for a playoff spot, with the Pirates sitting at 48-64, having struggled throughout the season, while the Giants have a slightly better record at 56-56, indicating an average performance.
In their most recent outings, the Pirates managed a victory against the Giants, winning 9-5, while the Giants had a strong showing in their last game, beating their opponent 12-4. However, the Giants will be looking to capitalize on their momentum with Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander has had a challenging season, boasting a 1-8 record and a 4.53 ERA, but he pitched well in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run over 5 innings with 7 strikeouts.
Conversely, Johan Oviedo is projected to start for the Pirates, and his recent performance has been concerning. In his last outing on September 27, 2023, he allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings. The projections suggest that Oviedo may struggle again, as he is expected to pitch only 4.5 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out just 4.1 batters on average today.
Offensively, the Pirates rank 30th in MLB for team home runs and 30th for overall offense, which does not bode well against a pitcher like Verlander, who tends to induce fly balls. Meanwhile, the Giants, despite their 24th overall ranking in offense, have a better chance of capitalizing on the Pirates’ struggles. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate it could be a close contest, with the Pirates holding a moneyline of +105 and the Giants at -125.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Out of all starting pitchers, Justin Verlander’s fastball spin rate of 2437 rpm is in the 83rd percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Heliot Ramos has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.5-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)In today’s matchup, Casey Schmitt is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.4% rate (85th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Johan Oviedo – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Johan Oviedo to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 101 games (+21.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+8.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)