Check Out the Marlins vs Cubs Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday May 14, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field on May 14, 2025, for the third game of their series. Currently, the Cubs sit at 25-18, enjoying a solid season, while the Marlins are struggling at 15-26. The Cubs are coming off a narrow 5-4 victory over the Marlins just yesterday, which underscores their momentum heading into this matchup.

On the mound for the Cubs is Jameson Taillon, who has had an inconsistent season but is projected to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.3 earned runs today. Despite being ranked as the 125th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, Taillon’s xFIP of 4.01 suggests he has faced some bad luck this season. His last outing was tough, as he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings, but he’ll be looking to bounce back against a struggling Miami offense.

Ryan Weathers will take the hill for the Marlins. He’s projected to pitch only 4.7 innings and is expected to allow 2.3 earned runs as well. However, his overall performance has been underwhelming, with projections indicating he’ll struggle with walks and hits. The Marlins offense ranks 18th overall, and with only 21 home runs this season, they have not been able to provide much support.

The Cubs’ offense is a different story. They rank 3rd in MLB, demonstrating their ability to hit for power and get on base. Their top hitter has recently been in great form, boasting a .294 batting average and a 1.102 OPS over the last week. With a high implied team total of 4.42 runs for today’s game, expectations are high for the Cubs to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Marlins team. This game presents a significant opportunity for the Cubs to extend their winning streak and assert their dominance in this series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Weathers to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Xavier Edwards is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#3-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.2% less often this season (53.3%) than he did last season (59.5%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games (+14.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+16.10 Units / 268% ROI)