Check Out the Guardians vs Royals Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 7/25/2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Cleveland Guardians in a key American League Central matchup on July 25, 2025. Both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack, with the Royals holding a record of 50-53 and the Guardians at 51-51. In their last outing, the Royals secured an 8-4 victory on July 23, while the Guardians fell to the opposition, losing 4-3 the day before.

This matchup features two right-handed pitchers, with the Royals projected to start Michael Wacha and the Guardians sending out Gavin Williams. Wacha, currently ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down season with a 4-9 record and a solid ERA of 3.62. However, projections suggest he may face challenges, as he tends to allow a concerning number of hits and walks. In his last start on July 19, Wacha pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, showcasing his potential.

On the other side, Gavin Williams has a 6-4 record and an ERA of 3.54, indicating he has performed well, though he is considered an average pitcher overall. Williams has been effective in recent games, pitching 7 innings with only 1 earned run in his last start on July 20.

Offensively, the Royals rank 26th in the league, struggling to produce runs, while the Guardians sit at 28th overall. Both teams show weaknesses, particularly in generating power, with the Royals ranking 28th in home runs and the Guardians just ahead at 19th.

Betting markets anticipate a close game, with both teams having a moneyline set at -110. The game total is currently at 8.0 runs, reflecting the offensive struggles both teams have faced this season. With the projections suggesting a slight edge for the Royals, they may surprise and capitalize on their home advantage.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Daniel Schneemann has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .298 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .337 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Michael Wacha projects for 16.3 outs in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Over the last two weeks, Jonathan India’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Today, Jac Caglianone is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.3% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 94 games (+32.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)