Check Out the Dodgers vs Padres Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 8/24/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 24, 2025, in a critical National League West matchup. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, with the Padres sitting at 74-56, while the Dodgers trail closely at 73-57. This game marks the third in their series, following the Padres’ recent 5-1 victory over the Dodgers.

Nick Pivetta is projected to take the mound for the Padres, coming off a strong performance in which he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out ten. With a Win/Loss record of 13-4 and a stellar ERA of 2.81 this season, Pivetta is currently ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his capability to perform during crucial games. However, his 3.77 xFIP suggests some potential regression, as he may have benefitted from some good fortune.

Facing him will be Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who boasts an elite ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB. Yamamoto has a solid 2.90 ERA and a 10-8 record this season. While he has also performed well on the mound, his last outing saw him allowing three earned runs in seven innings.

The Padres’ offense, though averaging just 4.00 runs per game, ranks 8th in batting average, but their power has been lacking with only 110 home runs, the 2nd least in MLB. In contrast, the Dodgers’ offense is exceptionally potent, ranking 2nd in both overall production and home runs.

Given Pivetta’s ability to minimize walks and the potentially explosive power of the Dodgers’ lineup, the matchup presents an intriguing dynamic. With both teams at similar standings and the betting markets indicating a close contest, today’s game promises to be a thrilling battle as the Padres look to solidify their position while the Dodgers aim to bounce back.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2187-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Typically, batters like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 119 games (+14.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)