Check Out the Dodgers vs Braves Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday September 13, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 13, 2024, there’s plenty at stake in this National League matchup. The Braves, with a record of 79-67, are looking to solidify their position as they are currently sitting in a good spot for a Wild Card berth. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, boasting a stellar 87-59 record, are among the top contenders with their sights set on the postseason.

In their last game, the Braves suffered a tough loss, while the Dodgers showcased their strength, continuing a trend of solid performances. This game marks the first in a series between these two competitive teams, setting the stage for what promises to be an exciting clash.

On the mound, the Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach, who has had an up-and-down season with a 3.78 ERA and a 5-7 win/loss record. Despite being the 24th best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, Schwellenbach has displayed signs of being unlucky, indicated by his lower 3.26 xFIP. He faces a Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in MLB, known for their power and patience.

Conversely, the Dodgers will counter with Landon Knack, who has struggled with a 4.19 xFIP despite a solid 3.00 ERA and a 2-3 record this season. Knack’s tendency to allow fly balls could be a concern, especially against a Braves lineup that ranks 5th in home runs.

With both teams looking to gain an edge, this matchup could hinge on the effectiveness of the Braves’ bullpen, ranked 8th overall, against a Dodgers bullpen that sits at 12th. Bettors will want to keep an eye on Schwellenbach’s ability to navigate the Dodgers’ lineup while maximizing the Braves’ offensive potential against Knack’s fly-ball tendencies. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a close contest is expected.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Landon Knack’s 2440-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 88th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 99.4-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 17.2 outs per GS this year on average, Spencer Schwellenbach places in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball batters like Orlando Arcia usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Landon Knack.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 126 games (+34.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.15 Units / 63% ROI)