Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+140
On April 15, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first game of their series at LoanDepot Park. Both teams are performing well above average so far this season, with the Marlins holding an 8-7 record and the D-Backs slightly ahead at 9-7. The Marlins are coming off an impressive victory where they defeated their opponent 11-4 in their last outing on April 13, showcasing their offensive potential.
Miami’s Connor Gillispie is projected to take the mound against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly. Gillispie, despite being ranked #262 among MLB’s starting pitchers, has a decent ERA of 3.86, suggesting he has been somewhat fortunate this season. His average projections for this game—4.7 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, 3.3 strikeouts, and 4.5 hits—indicate he may struggle against a potent D-Backs lineup that ranks as the 5th best offense in MLB.
Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, while also statistically struggling with a 7.20 ERA, is projected to deliver an average performance, likely pitching 5.7 innings and allowing 2.6 earned runs. His strong outing in his last start on April 8, where he recorded 6 innings with just 2 earned runs, might provide the confidence boost he needs.
The Marlins’ offense ranks 14th overall in MLB, but their power has been lacking, with only 11 home runs so far, placing them 25th. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have shown more offensive firepower, especially with their best hitter currently boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.123 OPS.
Given the D-Backs’ higher ranking and the current projections, they appear to have an edge in this matchup. However, the Marlins’ recent offensive explosion and home-field advantage could play a crucial role in swinging the game in their favor. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-160)Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Connor Gillispie.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Arizona’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in MLB: #6 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Connor Gillispie is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Otto Lopez is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)