Check Out the Cubs vs Padres Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday April 16, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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San Diego Padres

On April 16, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams enjoying strong starts to the season. The Padres enter this game with a record of 14-4, showcasing their 4th best offense in MLB, while the Cubs hold a solid 12-8 record, positioning them as the 3rd best offensive unit. The stakes are high as this marks the third game in their series, following a tightly contested matchup yesterday.

San Diego is projected to start Nick Pivetta, a right-handed pitcher who’s had a commendable season thus far, boasting a 2-1 record and an impressive 1.59 ERA over three starts. Pivetta’s high strikeout rate of 27.7% could pose problems for the Cubs, who rank 6th in MLB for strikeouts. Additionally, his ability to limit walks (6.2 BB%) may help neutralize the Cubs’ patience at the plate, as they lead the league in walks.

Matthew Boyd, the Cubs’ left-handed pitcher, has also excelled with a 1.59 ERA, but his 4.19 xFIP suggests that he may not sustain this level of success. Boyd’s projections indicate he will pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which could put pressure on a Cubs bullpen ranked 16th in MLB.

Betting markets currently favor the Padres with a moneyline of -125, reflecting a 53% implied win probability. Given their strong offensive rankings and solid pitching, the Padres appear poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage and take a crucial step in the series.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Justin Turner has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Pivetta has utilized his secondary offerings 7.1% less often this season (44.7%) than he did last season (51.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the San Diego Padres in today’s game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)