Check Out the Braves vs Phillies Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday May 28, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Atlanta Braves on May 28, 2025, in a critical National League East matchup. The Phillies currently sit at 35-19, enjoying a strong season, while the Braves are struggling at 25-28, falling below average. Yesterday, the Phillies bested the Braves, continuing to assert their dominance in the series.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phillies, stands out as a key factor in this game. With a 6-1 record and an impressive 2.42 ERA, he ranks as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Wheeler’s ability to limit earned runs—projecting to allow only 2.2 today—will be crucial against a Braves offense that ranks 13th in the league and has struggled to generate consistent scoring.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with AJ Smith-Shawver, whose 3.67 ERA is somewhat misleading given his 5.60 xERA. This suggests that he could be due for tougher outings moving forward. Smith-Shawver’s high walk rate (10.6 BB% this season) could prove problematic against a Phillies lineup that excels at drawing walks, currently ranking 5th in MLB for free passes.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a pitching duel. With the Phillies offense ranked 5th overall and performing well, they hold the edge in this matchup. Betting lines indicate the Phillies as favorites with a moneyline of -160, reflecting a favorable outlook for them against a Braves team that appears to be struggling to find its footing.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves hitters as a group have been among the best in MLB this year (6th-) when it comes to their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 52 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+280/-400)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)