Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
(-115/-105)-140
The Seattle Mariners are set to host the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park on April 30, 2025, in what is the second game of their series. The Mariners currently hold a record of 17-12 and are enjoying a strong season, while the Angels sit at 12-16, struggling to find their footing. In yesterday’s matchup, the Mariners edged out the Angels with a score of 5-3, further solidifying their position as a competitive force in the American League West.
Projected starters Emerson Hancock and Tyler Anderson have had contrasting seasons so far. Hancock, despite a 1-1 record, has struggled with a high ERA of 7.71, indicating tough luck this season according to advanced metrics, which suggest he may improve. Anderson, on the other hand, boasts a stellar 2-0 record with a solid 2.60 ERA, although his xFIP indicates he may be riding some good fortune. Both pitchers are expected to go around five innings, but Hancock’s high earned run projection of 2.4 compared to Anderson’s 2.6 shows a slight edge for the Angels’ starter.
Offensively, the Mariners rank as the 5th best in MLB, showcasing their power with the 3rd most home runs. In contrast, the Angels are struggling with a 26th overall rank in offensive production, particularly in batting average, where they sit at 29th. This disparity could be pivotal, especially considering that Hancock is known for throwing strikes, which may play into the Angels’ hands if they can capitalize on his mistakes.
With a current moneyline of -140, the Mariners are favored, reflecting their strong offensive capability against an Angels team that has had difficulty generating consistent runs. Overall, the Mariners appear well-positioned to extend their winning streak in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Because flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Tyler Anderson (41.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Nolan Schanuel is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Emerson Hancock’s sinker rate has jumped by 13.8% from last season to this one (29.8% to 43.6%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Randy Arozarena has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.6-mph average to last season’s 94.2-mph average.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The underlying talent of the Seattle Mariners projected lineup today (.318 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .330 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Nolan Schanuel has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)