Check Out Rockies vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips – Thursday June 19th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on June 19, 2025, both teams are struggling through a dismal season. The Nationals sit at 30-44, while the Rockies are even worse at 17-57. This matchup comes after the Nationals faced off against the Rockies yesterday, where they fell short once again, continuing their painful losing streak.

On the mound, the Nationals will send Trevor Williams, who has been less than stellar this year with a 3-8 record and a troubling ERA of 5.71. However, projections suggest that Williams has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.31, which is 1.40 points lower than his ERA. He’s projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out 4.7 batters. Given that the Rockies rank as the 1st in MLB for strikeouts, this matchup may play to Williams’ advantage as he faces a lineup that struggles to make contact.

Chase Dollander will take the hill for the Rockies, sporting a 2-7 record and a painful 6.57 ERA. Like Williams, Dollander’s xFIP (4.73) suggests he has also faced misfortune this season. However, he may have a tougher time against a Nationals offense that ranks 21st in the league, struggling to create runs.

While the Rockies have a slightly better bullpen ranked 14th, their overall offensive performance has left much to be desired, ranking 26th in the league. In contrast, the Nationals have seen some recent life from their best hitter, who has maintained a .360 batting average over the last week, giving them a glimmer of hope. The Game Total for tonight is set at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers expect some offensive fireworks, making the Nationals a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 5.12 runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Chase Dollander and his 36% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today’s game being matched up with 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Trevor Williams will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing batters in today’s game… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington’s 8.1° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the league this year: #30 overall.
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.19 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI)