Check Out Rockies vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips – Thursday June 19th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on June 19, 2025, both teams are struggling significantly this season. The Nationals sit at 30-44, while the Rockies are even worse at 17-57. In their last matchup on June 18, the Rockies emerged victorious with a 3-1 win over the Nationals. This game marks the fourth in the series, and given the recent performance of both teams, it carries substantial weight for the struggling squads.

For the Nationals, Trevor Williams is projected to take the mound. Despite being ranked as the 245th best starting pitcher in MLB, Williams has shown some signs of improvement lately, posting a 5.71 ERA this season but a more favorable 4.31 xFIP, indicating he might be getting unlucky. His last start on June 14 was commendable, allowing just two earned runs over five innings. On the other side, the Rockies will counter with Chase Dollander, who has a troubling 6.57 ERA this year and has struggled with control, evidenced by his 10.9% walk rate.

The Nationals rank 22nd in MLB in offensive production, which is less than ideal. However, they do have a glimmer of hope in their best hitter, who has been performing well recently, boasting a .360 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rockies rank 26th in offensive output and have struggled to find consistency at the plate.

With the Nationals as betting favorites at -160, the projections suggest a strong possibility for them to exceed their implied total of 5.53 runs. If Williams can continue his upward trajectory against a Rockies offense that ranks first in strikeouts, they may just secure a much-needed victory.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Chase Dollander and his 36% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today’s game being matched up with 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Trevor Williams has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.71 mark is quite a bit higher than his 4.02 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington’s 8.3° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the league this year: #30 overall.
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.19 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)