Check Out Reds vs Braves Picks and Betting Tips – Wednesday May 7th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds are set to face off at Truist Park on May 7, 2025, in what promises to be an engaging matchup. Both teams are currently navigating average seasons, with the Braves at 17-18 and the Reds slightly ahead at 18-19. Following the Braves’ recent performance, which included a tough loss yesterday, this game represents a critical opportunity for them to regain some momentum.

On the mound, the Braves will start Grant Holmes, who has recorded a 2-2 record this season with an ERA of 4.24. Despite his ranking as the 123rd best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced projections suggest he may have been fortunate thus far, indicated by his higher 5.07 FIP. Holmes is projected to pitch approximately 5.7 innings today, but he’ll need to address his troubling average of 5.6 hits allowed per game if he hopes to keep the Reds at bay.

Facing him will be Hunter Greene, a standout with a 4-2 record and a striking ERA of 2.53, making him the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB. Greene has shown the ability to dominate at times, highlighted by his average of 6.7 strikeouts per game. However, his projected metrics also indicate a potential decline, as his xFIP is slightly higher than his ERA.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, with a particularly low projection of 3.75 runs today, while the Reds also find themselves at 12th overall. Both teams aim to capitalize on their scoring potential, but the Braves’ performance with runners on base will be crucial given their struggles in generating runs lately.

With tight moneyline odds of -110 for both teams, this matchup is expected to be closely contested, and the Braves may hold a slight edge if Holmes can outperform his statistics on this important day.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Hunter Greene’s 98.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 100th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Over the past 7 days, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Rece Hinds, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Grant Holmes is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Matt Olson has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves batters collectively have been one of the best in MLB this year (7th-) when assessing their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Tyler Stephenson has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)