Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Rockies vs D-Backs – 8/08/25

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on August 8, 2025, playoff implications are minimal for both teams, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 54-61 and the Rockies struggling at 30-84. While the D-Backs are having a below-average season, the Rockies are grappling with one of the worst records in MLB, making this matchup more about pride than contention.

The game marks the first in a series between these two teams, and each squad will send a starter with contrasting narratives to the mound. Zac Gallen, the projected starter for the Diamondbacks, has had a rough year with an 8-12 record and a 5.48 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky, as his 4.04 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. Gallen is poised to pitch an average of 6.1 innings today but projects to allow 2.7 earned runs, which is above average.

In contrast, Colorado’s Austin Gomber has struggled significantly, holding a 0-5 record with a 6.18 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.2 innings and could give up 3.2 earned runs. Gomber’s low walk percentage means he could limit the Diamondbacks’ ability to capitalize on their patience at the plate, as Arizona ranks 4th in walks this season.

The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB, boasting impressive power with a rank of 7th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense is a stark contrast, sitting at 25th overall. Arizona has a high implied team total of 5.40 runs for this matchup while Colorado is projected at just 3.60 runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Tallying 14.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Austin Gomber places in the 16th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Hunter Goodman has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last year’s 92.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Zac Gallen will have a disadvantage squaring off against 7 hitters in the projected batting order who share his hand in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Geraldo Perdomo has been lucky this year, posting a .352 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .042 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• James McCann – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  James McCann hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 98 games (+13.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 108 games (+14.02 Units / 11% ROI)
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Blaze Alexander has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.60 Units / 47% ROI)