Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Reds vs Orioles – 4/19/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Cincinnati Reds visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 19, 2025, the stakes are high for the Baltimore Orioles, who are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 8-3 loss to the Reds just a day prior. The Orioles, currently sitting at 8-11, are struggling this season, while the Reds hold a slightly better record at 10-10, indicating an average start to their campaign.

On the mound, the Orioles are set to start Brandon Young, who has been projected to pitch 4.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, which reflects a below-average performance. Young ranks as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he may have a tough time against the Reds’ lineup. In contrast, Hunter Greene, projected to start for Cincinnati, has been exceptional this season with a 0.98 ERA and a ranking of 25th among starting pitchers. Greene’s ability to limit walks could play a crucial role against an Orioles offense that ranks 5th in the league for least walks.

Despite their recent struggles, the Orioles’ offense has shown some power, ranking 8th in MLB for home runs. In this matchup, they will need to capitalize on Greene’s occasional vulnerability to hits, as he projects to allow 4.8 hits on average today. With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors might see this as an opportunity for a high-scoring affair.

The advanced projections suggest that the Orioles could have an edge given Greene’s high strikeout rate and the Orioles’ low-walk offense. This matchup is pivotal for Baltimore as they seek to turn their season around and secure a much-needed victory against a competitive Reds team.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Greene has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.6% less often this season (39.2%) than he did last season (44.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.1) suggests that TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 20.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-130)
  The 3rd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)