Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Nationals vs Phillies – 8/18/24

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on August 18, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standing in the National League East. The Phillies, currently 73-50, are enjoying a strong season and are in a favorable position for a playoff push. In stark contrast, the Nationals sit at 55-69 and have struggled throughout the year.

In their previous matchup on August 17, the Phillies came out on top, winning 5-1, further showcasing their dominance. Taijuan Walker, who has had his share of difficulties this season with a 5.68 ERA, is projected to start for Philadelphia. Despite ranking as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, which may mean better days ahead. Walker’s last outing on August 13 was unremarkable; he pitched just 4 innings, allowing 3 earned runs.

On the other side, Jake Irvin represents the Nationals and has a respectable 3.72 ERA this season. However, he’s also had his struggles, with projections indicating he could allow 3.3 earned runs today. Irvin has been effective in limiting walks, which could be crucial against a Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in walks.

The Phillies’ offense ranks 7th in MLB, led by Kyle Schwarber, who has produced stellar numbers this season, including 28 home runs. The projections indicate that the Phillies should be able to exploit the Nationals’ lackluster offense, which ranks 22nd in the league overall. With an implied team total of 5.21 runs, the Phillies are expected to continue their solid performance against a Nationals team that struggles to find consistent offensive production. This contest offers bettors a compelling opportunity to back a strong Philadelphia side looking to extend their winning streak.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jake Irvin’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (44.3% vs. 35.4% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Alex Call has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Taijuan Walker’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2008 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (1931 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Brandon Marsh has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 53 games at home (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)