New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-120/+100)-110
On May 7, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the New York Mets in the third game of their series at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a 19-17 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Mets sit at a solid 23-14, enjoying a great start. After yesterday’s game, where Arizona defeated New York 5-1, the D-Backs will look to continue their momentum.
Merrill Kelly, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has a solid but unremarkable 3-1 record this season, with a 4.06 ERA. Although his advanced stats indicate he might be due for a regression, he pitched well in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 5 innings. However, his low strikeout rate (17.7 K%) could be concerning, especially against a Mets lineup that strikes out infrequently, ranking 5th least in MLB.
On the other side, Kodai Senga is having a breakout year for New York, sporting a remarkable 1.38 ERA and a 3-2 record. Despite projections suggesting he might not maintain this level of success, his ability to limit runs makes him a tough opponent for the Diamondbacks.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 5th in MLB, bolstered by their best hitter’s impressive recent performance—he’s hitting .407 over the last week with 5 RBIs. In contrast, the Mets rank 7th in offense but have struggled with their bullpen, currently ranked 28th, which could be a critical factor in a close game.
With both teams projected to score 4.50 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive. The Diamondbacks’ blend of offensive prowess and a solid outing from Kelly could give them an edge as they look to build on their recent win.
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Kodai Senga is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Luis Torrens has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Merrill Kelly has relied on his non-fastballs 6.5% less often this year (59.3%) than he did last season (65.8%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Josh Naylor has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+140)The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+120/-150)Merrill Kelly has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 51% ROI)