Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Marlins vs Giants – 8/30/24

Miami Marlins

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 30, 2024, they find themselves in a tight spot in the standings, sitting at 67-68 and showing signs of an average season. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling significantly with a record of 49-85, contributing to their status as one of the worst teams this year. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the Giants will be looking to build momentum after their last outing.

The Giants are projected to start Blake Snell, who comes in as the 17th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Snell has a respectable ERA of 3.76 and has been unlucky this season, as indicated by his lower xERA of 2.79. He projects to pitch around 5.9 innings while allowing an average of 1.7 earned runs and striking out 8.3 batters, showcasing his elite potential. In contrast, Adam Oller is expected to start for the Marlins, and his performance has not been nearly as strong, with a 5.23 ERA and a concerning 6.59 xFIP, indicating he might be in for a rough outing against a patient Giants lineup.

Offensively, the Giants’ lineup ranks 15th in the league, while the Marlins find themselves at 29th. This stark difference in offensive capability gives the Giants a significant edge. Additionally, the Giants boast the top-ranked bullpen in MLB, which should provide added support late in the game against a Marlins bullpen that ranks 27th.

With the Giants coming in as significant favorites with a moneyline of -255, they are expected to capitalize on their advantages in pitching and offense, making this matchup an intriguing one for bettors. The low game total of 7.0 runs suggests a heavy reliance on Snell’s arm, but with the current trends and projections leaning heavily in the Giants’ favor, they may just secure a much-needed win.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Adam Oller has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 58.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Derek Hill has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 11.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Miami Marlins project for the least runs on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-280)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Adam Oller struggles to strike batters out (8th percentile K%) — great news for Fitzgerald.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Blake Snell – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+160/-205)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 41 games (+18.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.60 Units / 17% ROI)