Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Marlins vs Cubs – 5/13/25

Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs

On May 13, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field, looking to build on their recent success after defeating the Marlins 5-2 in their previous matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 24-18, are enjoying a solid season, while the Marlins struggle at 15-25, marking them as one of the league’s worst teams.

The Cubs are projected to start Ben Brown, who ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although Brown’s ERA sits at 4.95, his 3.55 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. In his last start on May 7, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs while striking out 9 batters, showcasing his potential despite a less-than-stellar ERA.

On the other side, the Marlins will send Valente Bellozo to the mound. Bellozo has had a rocky start to the season, with a 0-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.50 that belies a concerning 5.83 xFIP. This suggests he has benefited from some good fortune, and against the powerful Cubs lineup, he may be in for a challenging outing.

The Cubs boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their ability to hit home runs, ranking 3rd with 61 this season. This power could be particularly advantageous against Bellozo, a high-flyball pitcher with a 55% flyball rate. Additionally, the Cubs’ patience at the plate, reflected in their high walk rate, could exploit Bellozo’s struggles with control, as he has a 13.2% walk rate.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs and the Cubs favored at -250, the projections suggest a strong offensive showing from Chicago, aiming for a decisive victory over a struggling Marlins squad.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Valente Bellozo has utilized his non-fastballs 7.6% more often this season (70.3%) than he did last year (62.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jesus Sanchez has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ben Brown’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (94.5 mph) below where it was last season (96.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Seiya Suzuki has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.5-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-230)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-280)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.50 Units / 35% ROI)