Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Angels vs Nationals – 8/11/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 11, 2024, both teams are enduring disappointing seasons, with the Nationals sitting at 54-64 and the Angels at 51-66. After battling it out in the first two games of the series, last night’s matchup saw the Nationals struggling yet again, leaving them looking for some spark from their roster.

The Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who has had an average year, sporting a 4.66 ERA and a 7-9 record over 23 starts. Despite being ranked as the 114th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he might have faced some bad luck, as reflected by his 3.99 xFIP. On the other side, Jack Kochanowicz will take the mound for the Angels, but his performance has been far from encouraging. With a staggering 14.14 ERA in just two starts, he has been one of the worst pitchers in the league, which could bode well for the Nationals’ struggling offense.

Despite their lackluster season, the Nationals rank 3rd in stolen bases, showcasing a speed element that could exploit Kochanowicz’s groundball tendencies. The projections indicate the Nationals may average 4.26 runs, while the Angels are expected to score around 4.54 runs. Interestingly, while the Nationals are favored with a moneyline of -155, the advanced projection system sees the teams in a near even matchup.

As both teams look to shake off their underwhelming records, this game presents an opportunity for the Nationals to capitalize on a vulnerable pitcher and find their rhythm at the plate. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, fans can expect an exciting showdown at Nationals Park.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Jack Kochanowicz in the 4th percentile among all SPs in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Zach Neto has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Los Angeles Angels have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.2 mph this season (95.6 mph) over where it was last year (94.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Typically, batters like Luis Garcia who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 72 games (+7.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  James Wood has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)