Check Out Phillies vs White Sox Picks and Betting Tips – Wednesday July 30th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies in the third game of their interleague series at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 30, 2025. The White Sox enter this matchup struggling significantly, sitting with a disappointing record of 39-69, while the Phillies boast a solid 61-46 record, positioning themselves as one of the competitive teams in the league. In their previous game, the White Sox fell to the Phillies by a score of 6-3, highlighting their continued difficulties this season.

Chicago is projected to start Tyler Alexander, a left-handed pitcher with a 4-9 record and an average ERA of 4.36. While his ERA suggests he’s been about average, his 3.24 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. However, his projections for today are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 3.0 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs and 3.4 hits. The White Sox offense has also struggled, ranked 29th in the league, which adds pressure on Alexander to perform.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker, who has a 3-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.84. His recent performance includes a respectable outing where he pitched 6 innings, allowing only 3 earned runs. The projections for Walker suggest he will pitch an average of 5.1 innings today but may struggle, allowing 3.0 earned runs and 5.2 hits.

The odds favor the Phillies, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.78 runs, compared to the White Sox’s +115 underdog status and an average implied total of 4.22 runs. Given the disparity in offensive capabilities and current form, the Phillies are poised to capitalize on the White Sox’s struggles.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starting pitchers, Taijuan Walker’s fastball spin rate of 2147 rpm ranks in the 17th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kyle Schwarber has strong power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Alexander doesn’t generate many whiffs (24th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Tyler Alexander – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Tyler Alexander to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Luis Robert Jr.’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.1-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)