Check Out Cubs vs Blue Jays Picks and Betting Tips – Tuesday August 12th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup on August 12, 2025. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 69-50, while the Cubs sit at 67-50. The stakes are high, as this game marks the first in a series between these two clubs.

In their most recent outings, the Blue Jays edged out their opponent with a narrow 5-4 victory, while the Cubs fell short in a 3-2 loss. The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs, while the Cubs are not far behind at 5th. This offensive prowess could play a crucial role in today’s matchup, especially against two right-handed pitchers.

Jose Berrios is projected to take the mound for the Blue Jays. Despite being ranked 178th among starting pitchers in MLB, Berrios has a decent season record of 8-4 with a 3.89 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have enjoyed some good fortune, as his 4.60 xERA indicates potential regression moving forward. He projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs, which is not ideal against a powerful Cubs lineup that has already hit 167 home runs this season.

On the other side, Javier Assad will be starting for the Cubs. Assad’s recent start was rocky, allowing 8 earned runs in just 4 innings, a performance that raises concerns about his effectiveness. He projects similarly to Berrios, with an average of 5.0 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed.

With the Blue Jays having a high implied team total of 4.66 runs, they might have the advantage today, especially with their potent offense and home-field support. Bettors may want to keep an eye on how Berrios handles the Cubs’ power-hitting lineup, as this matchup could swing in favor of the Blue Jays if he can keep the ball in the park.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+105)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 15th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The 10.2% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs ranks them as the #4 team in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Jose Berrios has tallied 17.1 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Daulton Varsho is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 118 games (+19.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 115 games (+6.70 Units / 4% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+24.20 Units / 605% ROI)