Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Cardinals – Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals

On August 26, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 65-67, are having an average season, while the Pirates are struggling at 57-75. In their last matchup, the Pirates fell to the Cardinals, further extending their woes this season.

St. Louis is projected to start right-hander Andre Pallante, who has had a challenging year with a 6-11 record and a 5.17 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest that Pallante has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.93 xFIP indicates he might improve moving forward. He’s a high-groundball pitcher (61% GB) facing a Pirates offense that ranks 30th in the league, demonstrating very little power with only 96 home runs this season. This matchup could favor Pallante, as the Pirates’ lack of power may not exploit his groundball tendencies.

On the other side, Pittsburgh will send out Mitch Keller. His 5-12 record and 4.34 ERA reflect an average season, but projections indicate he may also have room for better performance with a 3.76 FIP. Both pitchers are expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, but Keller’s tendency to yield 5.7 hits and 1.6 walks on average puts him at a disadvantage against a Cardinals offense that, while ranked 21st overall, still has elements that can capitalize on Keller’s struggles.

Betting odds currently favor the Cardinals with a moneyline of -130, suggesting that sportsbooks believe this will be a closely contested game. With both teams underperforming this season, the Cardinals have a slight edge, bolstered by the projections that suggest Pallante could shine against a weak Pirates lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Mitch Keller has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Typically, bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 25% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has used his secondary pitches 11.2% more often this year (42.1%) than he did last year (30.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Masyn Winn is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+6.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 84 games (+19.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 41% ROI)