Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
(-110/-110)+140
On July 30, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are fighting for position in the National League, with the Reds holding a record of 56-52, while the Dodgers are in a stronger position at 63-45. The Reds have been above average this season, but they face a tough challenge against a Dodgers team that ranks as the 2nd best offense in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that has hit 162 home runs this year.
In their last game, the Dodgers took a decisive victory, further solidifying their position as a favorite in this matchup. The Reds will rely on Nick Martinez, who has had an average season with a 4.69 ERA. Martinez’s projections suggest he will pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs, which could be problematic against a high-powered Dodgers offense. His ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) will be tested against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in walks drawn.
On the other side, the Dodgers will send Shohei Ohtani to the mound. Ohtani has been nothing short of spectacular, with a stellar 1.50 ERA this season. However, projections indicate he may only pitch 3.9 innings today, which raises some eyebrows. Yet, with an elite strikeout rate and the Reds’ offense ranking only 15th overall, Ohtani’s presence is likely to stifle the Cincinnati bats.
With the Dodgers’ bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they have the advantage late in the game. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. Given the current odds, the Reds are underdogs with a moneyline of +150, while the Dodgers are favored at -175, reflecting their stronger overall performance this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Shohei Ohtani has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94.8-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Nick Martinez’s slider percentage has jumped by 6.5% from last year to this one (5.2% to 11.7%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Spencer Steer, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+19.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.65 Units / 41% ROI)