Check Out Braves vs Marlins Picks and Betting Tips – Saturday September 21st, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves gear up for the second game of their National League East series on September 21, 2024, the two teams find themselves on opposite ends of the standings. The Marlins, enduring a rough season with a 57-97 record, are well out of playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Braves, at 83-71, are in a stronger position and looking to solidify their postseason aspirations.

In yesterday’s matchup, the Braves showcased their offensive prowess, a strength highlighted by their 4th-ranked home run tally in the league. Max Fried, the Braves’ projected starter, brings his elite pitching to the mound. Ranked as the 5th best starter in MLB, Fried boasts a solid 3.49 ERA. His high groundball rate could neutralize Miami’s lack of power, which ranks 28th in home runs, making this a favorable matchup for him.

On the other side, Miami will counter with Adam Oller, whose struggles are evident in his 5.40 ERA and the fact that he ranks 322nd among MLB starters. The Marlins’ offense, ranked 29th overall, faces a tough challenge against Fried and a Braves bullpen ranked 7th.

The Marlins’ recent bright spot has been Otto Lopez, who has been on a tear over the last week with a .409 batting average and 1.095 OPS. However, their bullpen, ranked last in the league, could have a difficult time containing Atlanta’s potent lineup, led recently by Matt Olson’s impressive 1.457 OPS over the past week.

The Braves enter as clear favorites, with a moneyline of -250 and an implied win probability of 69%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 68% chance to win, slightly below the implied odds, hinting at potential value in Miami as a +210 underdog.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all SPs, Max Fried’s fastball spin rate of 2218 rpm grades out in the 24th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Matt Olson has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Adam Oller is expected to ring up an average of 3.9 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jesus Sanchez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Jesus Sanchez, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+20.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 127 games (+25.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)