Check Out Blue Jays vs Athletics Picks and Betting Tips – Saturday July 12th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics

The Toronto Blue Jays clash with the Oakland Athletics in a pivotal matchup at Sutter Health Park on July 12, 2025. The Blue Jays enter this game looking to continue their strong season with a record of 55-39, while the Athletics, at 39-57, are struggling despite showing some potential with a solid offense. Notably, both teams faced off just yesterday, where the Blue Jays edged out the Athletics by a tight 7-6 scoreline.

Projected starters Jacob Lopez and Kevin Gausman showcase contrasting trajectories. Lopez, a left-handed pitcher, has been a high-strikeout option with a 28.2% strikeout rate but has struggled with a 2-5 record and a 4.26 ERA this year. His projections today are not encouraging, as he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. Meanwhile, Gausman, although labeled a below-average pitcher in Power Rankings, brings a 6-6 record and a slightly better ERA of 4.13 into this matchup. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing around 3.2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Athletics’ attack ranks 13th in Major League Baseball and has shown potential with 7th in home runs, driven largely by their best hitter, who has been red-hot lately with a .350 batting average over the last week. On the flip side, the Blue Jays are 10th in offensive ranking and boast the 2nd-best batting average in the league, adding significant pressure on Lopez.

With Gausman facing a low-strikeout Athletics lineup, this matchup leans towards the Blue Jays, who have a very high implied team total of 5.34 runs. Consider this high total, combined with Lopez’s struggles and the quality of the Blue Jays’ offense, as crucial factors in what promises to be an intriguing game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that flyball hitters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Kevin Gausman and his 36.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot today squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
  Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Lopez today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+440/-700)
  Zack Gelof has performed at a clip of 26.2 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 87th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nicholas Kurtz, Max Muncy, Denzel Clarke, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.54 Units / 19% ROI)
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Max Muncy has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)