Toronto Blue Jays
Athletics
(-110/-110)+120
On July 12, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Toronto Blue Jays in the second game of their series at Sutter Health Park. This matchup comes on the heels of a thrilling contest on July 11, when the Athletics narrowly fell to the Blue Jays by a score of 7-6. The Athletics, struggling this season with a 39-57 record, are not contending for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Blue Jays are having a successful campaign at 55-39, bolstered by one of the strongest offenses in the league.
Oakland is projected to start Jacob Lopez, a left-handed pitcher with a 2-5 record and an average ERA of 4.26. Although Lopez’s 3.58 SIERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better, his current projections indicate he may struggle, averaging just 4.8 innings and allowing 2.9 earned runs. Compounding this challenge, Lopez faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB batting average, making this a daunting assignment for the young pitcher.
On the other side, Kevin Gausman is set to take the mound for Toronto. Despite being labeled a below-average pitcher in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gausman has been effective in his 18 starts this season, holding a 6-6 record with an ERA of 4.13. His projections indicate he will pitch about 5.7 innings while allowing around 3.3 earned runs, which could be enough to stifle the Athletics’ offense.
With the Athletics’ bats being average overall yet ranking 7th in home runs, they may look to exploit Gausman’s vulnerabilities. However, the Blue Jays are favored in this contest, and the projections suggest they will likely dominate this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Given that flyball hitters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Kevin Gausman and his 36.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot today squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)The Toronto Blue Jays have 9 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Lopez today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+470/-800)Lawrence Butler has paced 23.5 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 84th percentile for base-stealing.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Denzel Clarke, Nicholas Kurtz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-140)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.54 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)Nick Kurtz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)