Cardinals vs Pirates Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, June 30, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 30, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face the St. Louis Cardinals in a pivotal National League Central matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates enter this game struggling with a record of 35-50, while the Cardinals sit comfortably at 47-38. In their previous contest, the Cardinals showcased their offense, putting up a strong effort in their latest game, but both teams have been inconsistent lately.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Andrew Heaney, who has had a rough season, culminating in a 3-7 record and a 4.48 ERA. Despite being one of the lower-tier pitchers in MLB, Heaney’s average strikeout rates may play well against the Cardinals’ lineup, which comes into this game with a below-average strikeout rate. However, Heaney’s tendency to allow hits (projected 5.5 today) and walks (1.4) could prove detrimental against a Cardinals offense ranking 15th overall.

On the other side, St. Louis will send Erick Fedde to the mound. While he also sports a 3-7 record, his 4.11 ERA indicates slightly better performance than Heaney’s this season. Fedde’s 15.2% strikeout rate suggests that he can be taken advantage of, especially against the Pirates, who rank 4th in MLB for strikeouts. The projection suggests that Fedde may struggle, allowing 6.1 hits and 1.7 walks, but his ability to contain runs could be crucial.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB, struggling particularly in home runs, which will make it challenging for them to keep pace. Conversely, the Cardinals rank 10th in batting average and have a more consistent offensive output, making them favored to take this first game of the series. Betting markets suggest a close contest, but given the broader picture, St. Louis appears poised to seize an important victory.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Erick Fedde’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (37.5 compared to 31.1% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Arenado usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Andrew Heaney’s 89.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 2-mph drop off from last season’s 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Joey Bart is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 away games (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-200)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 25% ROI)